However, one implication of the increasing unavailability of (or competition for) hydrocarbons as time progresses, is that reliance on cheap ethylene for plastics production (as a de facto waste transfer mechanism) is in itself inherently unsustainable. Therefore, this adds another dimension to the plastic materials sustainability debate – we should probably be looking for some substitute material for things like plastic bags (and bottles, packaging materials, etc.) for reasons other than their (direct) environmental impact.
Plastics are, by definition, organic materials. So, the question is, what processes exist that sustainably produce materials? The only such process I can think of, offhand, is photosynthesis in green plants, which is the materials production process closest to being "sustainable" – as long as the sun shines (i.e., solar energy is available for the plants to convert directly into matter). At the present time ethylene is made from ethane by "steam cracking", another process makes ethanol. Since ethanol can be made from cellulose in a sustainable way then it is conceivable that we can still have very useful polymers such as high density polyethylene as part of a biopolymer suite, from this source. However it is likely that it will be far too expensive to use in disposable products like bags and packaging materials.
Environmental problem solved? By no means! But, it is instructive to note that the environmental "scourge" (as the anti-"plastic bags" campaigners describe it) will, like all other things related to fossil fuels, peak at some time. Unless a very cheap substitute source for plastic manufacture is found, it is only a matter of time before it is too valuable to be simply "given away" as in the case of grocery bags. Source stocks for making plastics will always be available, but the fact remains that the allocation and distribution of this material will change in the short- or medium-term future.
Paper or plastic? People are creatures of habit, and sometimes it takes more than their environmental consciousness to force change. In Colorado Springs during the drought of a few years ago, watering restrictions were imposed. It forced a dramatic decrease in water usage, but surprisingly when the water restrictions were lifted, the water usage didn’t go back up much. People’s habits were largely changed. So what would happen if grocery and other stores were mandated to charge a 10 cent “environmental fee” for every plastic or paper bag used? We would see a dramatic reduction in plastic bags and more usage of canvas bags. If after a year government decides to eliminate the fee, people by then will have adjusted to their canvas bags. In Michigan it is very hard to find a discarded aluminum can or bottle on the side of the road or around a picnic ground or beach. That’s because stores are required to charge a refundable deposit on selected cans and bottles. The practice of returning bottles and cans has become a habit for Michiganders and they don’t litter…even for those bottles that are not a part of the mandated charges. Hitting one’s pocket book forces a change in habits...a change that is now embodied in their life styles.